Eutrophication model for the Novosibirsk reservoir

Tskhai A.A., Ageikov V.Yu.

Institute for Water and Environmental Problems SB RAS

Approaches for modeling processes in living systems can be divided into system-dynamic (kinetic) and agent-based [1]. In this sense, this study is a kinetic modeling of an aquatic ecosystem using some heuristic assumptions, whose right to exist is ultimately determined by their ability to be the basis for explaining the observed phenomena.

To analyze data on the current state and spatial-temporal dynamics of the reservoir ecosystem, natural biogeochemical cycles of transformation of limiting elements are modeled [2]. The novelty of the study consists in combining the so-called structural-dynamic modeling [3], which allows taking into account the variability of the species composition and functional characteristics of plankton communities, with traditional methods of numerical calculations of water quality in spatially heterogeneous aquatic ecosystems. Along this way, it was possible to reproduce the trend of long-term eutrophication of the Novosibirsk reservoir [4-5]; to identify the role of hydrological factors in the unusual spatial distribution of phytoplankton; to predict the possible reaction of the studied ecosystem to the use of methods of combating eutrophication used in world practice.

The study was carried out within the framework of the scientific program of the Institute ащк Water and Environmental Problems SB RAS with the support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant No. 18-41-220002.


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2. Tskhai A. A., Leonov A.V. Forecasting the Wаtеr Quality fоr Projected Rеsеrvоir on the Base of the Model of Nitrоgеп and Phosphoгus Compound Transformations // Water resources 22, 3, 1995. 239-249.

3. Jørgensen S. E. Structural dynamic model // Ecological Modelling 31, 1–4, 1986. 1–9.

4. Tskhai A. A., Ageykov V. Yu. Simulating Variations in Reservoir Eutrophication Level by Reproducing Biogeochemical Cycles // Water resources 47, 1, 2020. 147-155. DOI 10.31857/S0321059620010149.

5. Tskhai A. A., Ageykov V. Yu. Violation of the stability of the reservoir ecosystem: a model approach for assessing and predicting the long-term process of eutrophication // Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Ecological Systems 9, 1, 2021. 1080327. DOI 10.13044/j.sdewes.d8.0327.


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