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PresentationsOn modern models and systems for early warning of armed conflictsDiplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Ostozhenka st., 53/2, building 1 Since the 90s of the last century, the concept of "conflict prevention" has become one of the most discussed both in scientific circles and among practitioners in various fields. Conflict prevention is part of overall conflict management and is a rather costly and time-consuming process that involves a wide range of activities that contribute to conflict prevention and resolution using various methods, including peace mediation, peacekeeping, confidence-building measures, informal diplomacy, etc. There are such procedures as analysis of the current situation, fixation of social facts, preventive measures aimed at eliminating or minimizing the causes of conflicts. When applying quantitative methods of conflict prevention analysis, along with other tools, systems of early warning indicators are used, the principle of analysis and use of which coincides with the indicators used to prevent financial crises. This approach makes it possible to identify with relatively high accuracy potential hotbeds of political tension that can escalate into large-scale conflicts. One of the indexes for analyzing the risks of the outbreak (or continuation and resumption) of armed conflicts is the Global Peace Index, published by the Australian research organization Institute for Economics and Peace since 2007. The index is based on the “negative peace” approach, which is considered as the basis for “positive peace”. "Positive Peace" is defined as the set of social relations, structures and institutions that contribute to the formation and sustainability of peaceful societies. The "negative world" consists of three dimensions, each of which constitutes a separate group of indicators: ongoing internal or international conflict, social security and security, militarization. Models in quantitative conflict early warning research are of great practical value for the selection of conflict indicators. The report discusses their advantages and disadvantages. Literature. 1. L.M. Kapitsa. Indicators of World Development - monograph / team of authors, ed. L.M. Kapitsa - Moscow: KNORUS, 2020
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