The Limits of Non-Cash Economy: Some Empirical Results
Dubna University, Universitetskaya 19, Dubna, 141982, Russia, email@example.com
[Jeu de cartes] En route vers un monde sans cash?
@Jacquelinbenoit, Nov 23, 2017
This study is devoted to the empirical analysis of some cash circulation tendencies in the current Russian economy. The attention is paid to spatial and structural dimensions of the circulation. The spatial pattern is represented by division of the country's territory into several administrative units - Federal Okrugs (or Districts), FOs. Meanwhile, the structural pattern is represented by the separate sectors of currency circulation created by cash of different origin - domestic and foreign ones. The statistical data used in this study are mostly of the Bank of Russia and cover last two decades .
It is noted preliminary that the volume and currency structure of the Russia's monetary sector are remarkably determined by its export-oriented economy and strategic aims of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). It is true in case both of domestic and foreign currencies. Talking on circulation of cash nominated in foreign currencies it is quite reasonable to describe the reasons for that, and, first of all, to understand the roots of dollarization.
The main result of this empirical study is that the Russia's cash market (both of domestic and foreign currencies) is spatially heterogeneous and polarized enough. It depends on the macroeconomic conditions of the regions and FO's, their level of foreign trade openness, and the banks' activities , .
As for the possible future of cash circulation in Russia it is expected that its level will gradually decline due to the progress in the field of ITs in the financial sphere, to both of the government (mostly of the CBR) and commercial banks' mutual efforts in this direction . At the same time both the speed and level of penetration of innovative non-cash services' into different Russian regions&okrugs will significantly vary due to existing interregional differences in their socio-economic development. Despite of the current difficulties in life conditions for the part of population living upon a very small modicum the situation of non-cash (or, at least, low-cash) economic space is likely achievable in Russia.
1. Bank of Russia Statistical Bulletins, 2001-2019 (www.cbr.ru).
2. Valiullin H. 2007. Russia's economic space: currencies, oil, investment// Studies on Russian Economic Development, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 141-152.
3. Merzlyakova S., Valiullin H. 2011. Tendencies towards the Spatial Concentration of the Russian Banking Sector // Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2011, Vol. 22, No. 5, pp. 526–534.