Model of internet diffusion in Moscow
Delitsin L.L.
"Математика. Компьютер. Образование". Cб. трудов XVII международной конференции. Под общей редакцией Г.Ю. Ризниченко Ижевск: Научно-издательский центр "Регулярная и хаотическая динамика", 2010 (in press). (accepted)
We propose a model of Internet diffusion in inhomogeneous society that accounts for birth, death, and aging. To identify model parameters we use data from sociological surveys conducted by Public Opinion Foundation and WCIOM. According to our model the Internet penetration in Moscow will eventually reach officially planned 75% level but not earlier than 2002. The major formal barrier is low level of Internet use by elderly moscovites (55+) , especially by retired women.
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