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Conference publicationsAbstractsXVIII conferenceForecasting to number of the population Kirov region by method age movementVyatka state university (VyaSU), Kirov.,Social and economic faculty, Department of Mathematical modelling in economy. Moscovskaya street, 36, 610000, Kirov, Russia 1 pp. (accepted)On statistical data for 2001 years tables of death rate for men and women rural and urban population of the Kirov region have been constructed. Numbers living up to the certain age (lx) from everyone 100000 born х years have been calculated back. Comparison of parameters 2001 and 2008 allows to reveal the tendency to growth of number of the lived among man's and female population living in city settlements, in all age groups. In a countryside the situation is differently. Using a method of construction of brief tables of death rate, values of an average of living people in this or that age interval have been calculated. On the basis of these data factors living by means of which are carried out of advancing age. As the brief table of death rate of advancing age have been executed in five years has been constructed. Constructed прогнозные values have shown, that number of men, women of village and city of able-bodied age decreases. Number of men of city by 2018 will be reduced to 12 % in comparison with 1998, men of village on 20 %, women of city on 18 % and women of village on 17 %. By 2018 in a subgroup number in village is more senior than able-bodied age will decrease on the average approximately on 37 %, in city on 20 % in comparison with 1998. So, the analysis of the forecast of a demographic situation has shown, that in the Kirov region the sharp demographic problem which will continue to develop and in the future is observed.
The literature. 1. Harchenko L.P.demography: studies. The grant. М.: Omega-L, 2009. 350 p. 2. The Kirov region in figures.2009 // Federal State Statistics Service in the Kirov region. [on-line resource]. URL: www.kirovstat.kirov.rugks.ru. |
