Immunosenescence and its influence on mortality due to respiratory diseases
"Математика. Компьютер. Образование". Cб. трудов XI международной конференции. Под общей редакцией Г.Ю. Ризниченко Ижевск: Научно-издательский центр "Регулярная и хаотическая динамика", 2004. Vol. 2. Pp. 789-795.
In this paper we simulate the trends in mortality due to respiratory diseases in the 20th century. Analysis of data on mortality due to influenza, bronchitis and pneumonia in Italian females revealed that the mortality curve not only shifts but changes in shape. Biological aging of the immune system is assumed to be the main factor of mortality rate increasing at advanced ages. Changes in population structure related to mean life span increasing are assumed to account for changes of mortality curve shape. The results of the model identification show that selection pressure was decreasing during the 20th century that resulted in growth heterogeneity of immunosenescence rate.