Conference publications


XXIX conference

The state budget and the pandemic

Vasilyeva I.A.

CEMI RAS, Moscow, Nakhimovsky Prospekt, 47

1 pp. (accepted)

The state budget of the country in 2020. Naturally, it turned out to be in short supply, a deficit of 2.75 trillion rubles was also initially planned for 2021. However, the statistics of the three quarters of this year showed an increase in budget revenues and a surplus of about 1.6 trillion rubles. The reasons for such a sharp jump are: 1) growth in gas and oil prices: the average price of Urals crude oil in 2021 increased to $66.1 per barrel (for nine months), with the forecast price of Urals oil at $ 45.3 per barrel. 2) an increase in the production of both oil and gas supplies; 3) a decrease in the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar.

According to preliminary data, oil and gas revenues increased by 68.5% and non-oil and gas revenues by 21.5% over the ten months of 2021. The growth of non-oil and gas revenues is a third increase in VAT receipts from the sale of Russian goods and imported imports. Import duties and income tax receipts increased by a third, excise duties increased by 13.7%. The increase in income from taxes and fees is caused by the restoration of the tax base and the abolition of preferential measures for the payment of taxes and fees for taxpayers of the most affected areas of activity.

Personal income tax receipts increased by 17.8% or by 315.2 billion rubles. due to the introduction of an increased tax rate

In addition, prices for agricultural products have increased this year (by 30-35% on average), fertilizers (plus 25%), metals (by 50% on average), fuel (diesel, aviation kerosene) Another factor in the growth of budget revenue was 200 billion rubles. from the tranche of the government's purchase of a controlling stake in Sberbank from the Central Bank and 146 billion rubles in the form of a fine of Norilsk Nickel.

In the law on the budget for 2022-2024, revenue expectations have also increased significantly. In the next two years, Russia's federal budget is projected to have a surplus of 1.33 trillion rubles (1% of GDP) in 2022 and 300 billion rubles (0.2% of GDP) in 2023, but in 2024 the budget will again become deficient in the amount of 520 billion rubles (0.3% of GDP). 2022 depends on the situation in the markets, and the markets – on general progress in the fight against coronavirus.


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