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Abstracts

XX conference

Economical and mathematical models of distributed lags comparative methods of structural changes assessment

Parshikova G.Y., Silayev A.A.

State University of Management Department of Mathematics Russia, 109 542, Moscow, Ryazan prospectus, d.99. Tel. (495) 371-70-88, fax: (495) 371-70-88, E-mail: gubel@inbox.ru

At the modern stage of market relations the keenest is a problem of constructing a log-ical scheme of the mechanism of allocation of investments in the capital of deferment ele-ments of regional economics. The argumentation of choice of priorities of the main economics element is impossible without realization of new approach to assessment of effectiveness of investments which is based on optimization of structure of investments.

At the mutual economical and statistical analysis of dynamics of investments, prospec-tive capital inputs and increase of unfinished construction needed for stable functioning of regional economics, it is necessary to consider the investment lag between investments and their results in the form of capital input. The point is that different delays in investment results lead to abnormal immobilization of investments, and with too big lags there are financial and production disproportions, loss of profitability, decrease of the manageability of the processes.

Lags decrease is the means of increasing production effectiveness. But minimal tech-nically acceptable delays cannot always be considered as optimal. For determination of opti-mum one should consider both sum of losses caused by delay in investments returns, and sum of expenses needed for decrease of delays of investment returns of extended capital reproduc-tion. The most profitable strategy is the one which provides minimum of sum of “lost” means as a result of immobilization and investments necessary for decrease of lags. Statistical analy-sis shows full volume of unfinished construction calculated for the end of the year, is charac-terized by the same parameters of lag connection with investments for the previous years and the same structure as capital inputs. Lag parameters show the values of delays (from minimal to maximal), as well as shares of investments in the respected years.

Functional structural connections of dynamics of productive assets (for the beginning of the year) and the following leaving with capital inputs of the previous years are determined by the lag dependencies , even though the structure of lags of capital leaving is different then structure of investments of the freshly inputted funds.

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