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Abstracts

XVII conference

Types of economic crises

Schwarzman M.M.

black_drive@smtp.ru

Crises inherently belong to evolution of any system. The matter is not “How to avoid crisis?” but «In what structure is system transformed after crisis?”, “What is to be done before the crisis to continue positive development after it?”

To answer this question we may consider crises of three types:

1. Crisis of the 1st type. This crisis is in subsystems that is in particular branches of economics. Economic state of the system continues to change permanently but in critical branch the change of leading financial industrial companies occurs. After series of the1st type crises the 2nd one is becoming.

2. Crisis of the 2nd type. This is the crisis of the system as a whole keeping its nature. In this case the economic state of the system is changing discretely. There are 2 phases of development in crisis of the 2nd type. System is becoming of higher level at the first phase. At the second phase it is on the lowest level. The 3d type of crisis is becoming after the series of the 2nd type ones.

3. The crisis of the 3d type. This is the crisis of the system as a whole with its nature changing. System is either dying or arising.

Economics of different countries responds differently on global crisis, 2008. It was crisis of the 1st type in developing countries. In China it was the crisis of the 2nd type. Under the results of last year China was the only country with positive GDP. For the USA this is the crisis of the second type of the second phase. Russian economics was saved by oil currency only.

To enter the economic development under which crises are fit to the 2nd type of the 1st phase it is necessary to develop all subsystems of economic system. Synchronization of these subsystems is the only sufficient condition. It is meaninglessly to save the economics for the account of financial injections into one or several subsystem (MIC, nanotechnology). It is necessary to forward financial, management, administrative resources to create the middle class of producers.

One more important thing – rate of economic processes. In China all changes are expected to be for decades according to its eastern philosophy. Psychology of people is fit to each moment of economic relations. Rise of internal freedom is more important thing for them. An accelerator of this process must be the middle class of producers. We return to this again from both the position of economics and social psychology

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