Conference publications

Abstracts

XIII conference

Pricing in the markets of the electric power

Kokovin A.N.

Вятский государственный университет Социально-экономический факультет, каф. «Математические инструменты в экономике» Россия, 610000, г. Киров, ул. Московская 36 Тел.: (8332) 62-48-16, факс: (8332) 62-15-91, E-mail: amygoVGU@yandex.ru

PRICING IN the MARKETS of the electric POWER

In electric power industry of Russia there are main recesses. Significant changes the structure of branch - from vertically integrated monopoly and full state regulation with small enough level of uncertainty of intermediate term incomes before today's liberalization of attitudes(relations) and undergoes introductions of a transitive market model with plans of the subsequent introduction completely the competitive market.

All to a lesser degree the prices depend on external regulation and are mostly defined(determined) by the market. Main principle of marketing is free participation of independent agents in formation of a uniform price (or the prices) on the electric power. In the market environment of the price reflect objective competitive (уравнивающую a supply and demand) cost of the electric power at present and in the given place, in view of cost of transportation of a product. The principle of free participation assumes not discrimination access of participants to tenders.

Competitive prices stimulate consumers to энергосбережению and manufacturers - to decrease(reduction) of expenses for manufacture. Process of manufacture in electric power industry is not the sum of contributions of separate manufacturers. It is the uniform "know-how" and deliveries of the electric power to consumers on networks of transfer As storage of the electric power - a problem(task) technologically complex(difficult) and expensive a supply and demand should be balanced at each moment of time. In other words, if at equal consumption one manufacturer has increased the loading another should reduce accordingly. Besides throughput of a network, parameters of quality of the electric power impose additional restrictions on « a structure of loading » generators. All this reflects technological dependence of one participants on others.

Features of the electropower markets (impossibility of storage of the electric power and system restrictions on its(her) transfer) - a principal cause of strong fluctuations of the prices and big market to risk In a number of the countries after liberalization of the market of the electric power ratings of many power companies were lowered рейтинговыми by agencies because of big to risk.

The analysis of dynamics(changes) of the prices specifies reversive character of their change, daily, week, seasonal periodicity. As it is observed кластеризация волатильности the prices, т. е. Presence of a plenty of price peaks in one time intervals quiet enough behaviour of the prices in others caused by seasonal fluctuations of temperatures with which fluctuations of a current consumption - and, as consequence(investigation) of the prices speak. In such situation to predict exact behaviour of the market it is practically impossible.

Thus, forecasting of the prices and волатильности borrows(occupies) one of the central places at an estimation market to risk and in the big degree defines(determines) accuracy of such estimation.

The purpose of work - to lead(carry out) the comparative analysis of mathematical methods with reference to forecasting of the prices and as a whole pricings in the markets of electric power industry.